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SaaS and business model feasibility calculator
Use this SaaS and business model feasibility calculator for subscription cohorts, MRR/ARR, churn, retention, CAC payback, bounded LTV, burn, cash runway and downside scenarios.
Method version 1.0.0 · Reviewed November 2, 2026 · Calculated on your device
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Inputs, workflow and interpretation
These are planning models using your inputs, not valuations, loan approvals or market forecasts. All money is USD. Fields start blank; Load example inserts illustrative data that must be replaced before evaluating a real project. Nothing is saved automatically.
How to use this workspace
- Define the project, baseline, viewpoint and horizon. Use incremental cash changes versus that baseline—not all accounting income or sunk costs.
- Collect the source records listed below. Date your assumptions and distinguish measured figures, signed terms, quotes and forecasts. If an essential input is unknown, investigate it rather than silently entering zero.
- Enter base assumptions and your own downside/upside changes. Use a coherent USD price basis: nominal flows with nominal discount rates, or real flows with real rates. Do not mix them.
- Calculate. Review the period table, zero/undefined metrics, cash deficits, scenario graph and model-specific notes. A positive NPV does not satisfy operational, legal, safety, market or financing requirements.
- Print/save the result or download the cash-flow CSV. Result JSON preserves inputs and results; CSV carries the period table. For an equal-period model, use the optional Decision Feasibility handoff only after reviewing the numbers.
Cash-flow definitions and timing
Project cash flow is before financing: exclude loan proceeds, principal and interest. Equity cash flow is after financing: equity contribution at time zero, then cash after debt service and final payoff. Do not discount one viewpoint with a rate intended for the other. Different discount rates can change the comparison.
NPV discounts all modeled net cash flows. Conventional IRR/XIRR is reported only for an initial outflow followed by nonnegative net inflows and a root in the stated range. Multiple sign changes can create ambiguous IRRs; the tool does not label one root as the answer. MIRR uses the specified finance/reinvestment rates. Payback is the first period-end recovery—not an interpolation or proof that cash stays positive afterward.
Scenario changes combine within a scenario; separate scenarios are alternatives, not cumulative events or probabilities. Longer lives and terminal values are assumptions that often dominate results. Check the source evidence before relying on them.
What the Decision Feasibility handoff does
The explicit handoff button places the base unlevered equal-period cash flows into a temporary handoff on this device and opens the complete study. On that page, choose Load the reviewed financial cash flows to replace the current unsaved study inputs. Save an existing study first if needed. There is no automatic merge.
Only initial project outlay, period benefits/costs and the matching discount rate transfer. Financing/equity returns, matrix scores, requirements, scenario probabilities and lender permissions do not. Your funding amount, requirements, ratings and additional uncertainty remain unverified and must be entered. The handoff never grants GO status. SaaS uses monthly periods and a monthly-equivalent rate; the other transferable models use years. Dated capital flows do not transfer because the complete study expects equal periods.
There is no online project save or account created by this handoff. It uses browser session storage, which can be cleared or blocked. JSON result downloads and explicit editable complete-study files are separate features.
SaaS and subscription businesses: keep customer, revenue and cash definitions consistent
- Use subscription/billing records for opening paying accounts and MRR. Initial MRR is opening customers × entered ARPA; acquired cohorts join at that ARPA. Use monthly customer churn, not annual churn divided by 12 unless that conversion is justified; a consistent annual-to-monthly survival conversion is
1 − (1 − annual churn)^(1/12). - Count expected NEW paying customers, with a separate growth assumption for new acquisitions. This is not an automatic conversion forecast from site visits or leads.
- Churn removes opening customers and proportional opening MRR. Expansion/contraction apply to surviving existing MRR. New-customer revenue is excluded from NRR/GRR. If your reporting definitions differ, reconcile them before comparing.
- Use COGS-consistent gross margin. The tool derives COGS once. Enter fully loaded cash CAC per acquired customer; acquisition spend is then CAC × new customers. Exclude those costs, COGS and setup from fixed opex to avoid double counting.
- Use starting available cash BEFORE setup. It funds runway but is not revenue and does not inflate NPV. Setup is spent at time zero. Annual discount is converted to a matching effective monthly rate.
- Cash receipts are closing MRR, including a full month for new customers; all cash occurs at month ends. This is not an annual-prepayment, deferred-revenue, receivables or invoice-collection model. No future financing or terminal valuation is assumed.
- Downside can combine higher churn, lower acquisitions, lower gross margin and increased fixed opex. Upside can improve acquisitions but also increases CAC spending, so its runway need not improve.
The tool reports closing MRR/ARR run rate, existing-cohort NRR/GRR, customer retention, CAC payback, simple and horizon-bounded discounted gross-profit LTV, fixed-cost break-even customers, first operating break-even, first negative-cash month and required starting cash. ARR is a run rate, not booked annual revenue. Zero churn does not justify infinite LTV. The break-even customer count excludes acquisition spending; operating break-even does not imply cumulative cash recovery. The cohort summary reconciles surviving customers and MRR by acquisition month.
Your calculation
A monthly recurring-revenue business model. Start with consistent customer, revenue, acquisition-cost and operating records; this is not an automatic forecast or a model for every type of business.
Choose a method, then enter your figures. Examples are illustrative, not recommended settings or rates.
How this calculation works
Closing MRR = opening MRR × (1 − churn) × (1 + expansion − contraction) + acquired customers × ARPA. Net cash = receipts − COGS − acquisition spend − fixed opex.
What information do I need?
Only fields for your selected method are required. Use consistent units and scope. Changing an entry method or unit system does not convert the numbers already entered. Previously calculated results are cleared when inputs change.
Input definitions and where to find them
- Opening paying customer equivalents
- Opening accounts included in opening MRR; expected fractional equivalents are permitted.
- Monthly revenue per new customer / initial ARPA (USD)
- Used for opening MRR and each new cohort; existing cohorts then follow entered expansion/contraction.
- New paying customers in month one
- Expected acquisitions; no traffic-to-customer conversion rate is guessed.
- Monthly growth in NEW customer acquisitions (%)
- Growth of the new-customer count, not of total revenue.
- Monthly opening-customer churn (%)
- Opening customers lost each month; assumes proportional churn of their MRR.
- Monthly expansion of surviving opening MRR (%)
- Applied after churn, to existing surviving revenue only. New customers are excluded.
- Monthly contraction of surviving opening MRR (%)
- Applied after churn on the same surviving-revenue basis.
- Gross margin after COGS (%)
- COGS are calculated once as revenue × (1 − gross margin). Exclude these costs from fixed opex.
- Cash acquisition cost per NEW customer (USD)
- Fully loaded cash acquisition spend consistent with counted acquisitions. Do not also include it in fixed opex.
- Month-one fixed operating cash expense (USD)
- Exclude COGS, acquisition spending, setup, debt and distributions.
- Monthly fixed-opex growth (%)
- Compounded each month, independently of revenue.
- Initial setup cash spent at time zero (USD)
- Incremental initial project outlay, not a current bank balance.
- Available starting cash BEFORE setup (USD)
- Funding only: used for runway; not counted as operating revenue or added to NPV.
- Projection horizon (whole months)
- 1–60 months. No terminal valuation beyond this horizon.
- Annual effective discount rate (%)
- Cash flows occur monthly; converted to a matching effective monthly rate.
- Downside added monthly churn (percentage points)
- Use your own assumptions, not industry benchmarks. Percentage changes are relative unless the label explicitly says percentage points.
- Downside NEW acquisition reduction (%)
- Use your own assumptions, not industry benchmarks. Percentage changes are relative unless the label explicitly says percentage points.
- Downside gross-margin reduction (percentage points)
- Use your own assumptions, not industry benchmarks. Percentage changes are relative unless the label explicitly says percentage points.
- Downside fixed-opex increase (%)
- Use your own assumptions, not industry benchmarks. Percentage changes are relative unless the label explicitly says percentage points.
- Upside monthly churn reduction (percentage points)
- Cannot reduce churn below zero.
- Upside NEW acquisition uplift (%)
- Acquisition spending rises too; improved sales do not guarantee better cash runway.
Worked example
This example uses the initial method shown in the selector. Load an example in the form to try it.
Example inputs
- Opening paying customer equivalents: 100
- Monthly revenue per new customer / initial ARPA (USD): 100
- New paying customers in month one: 10
- Monthly growth in NEW customer acquisitions (%): 2
- Monthly opening-customer churn (%): 3
- Monthly expansion of surviving opening MRR (%): 1
- Monthly contraction of surviving opening MRR (%): 0.5
- Gross margin after COGS (%): 80
- Cash acquisition cost per NEW customer (USD): 400
- Month-one fixed operating cash expense (USD): 8000
- Monthly fixed-opex growth (%): 1
- Initial setup cash spent at time zero (USD): 10000
- Available starting cash BEFORE setup (USD): 100000
- Projection horizon (whole months): 24
- Annual effective discount rate (%): 12
- Downside added monthly churn (percentage points): 2
- Downside NEW acquisition reduction (%): 20
- Downside gross-margin reduction (percentage points): 5
- Downside fixed-opex increase (%): 10
- Upside monthly churn reduction (percentage points): 1
- Upside NEW acquisition uplift (%): 20
Example answer: Modeled project NPV — monthly cash timing = 21,371.7719 USD
Use the result well
Monthly subscription cohort projection, not a universal model for all businesses. Monthly revenue equals closing MRR: new customers and surviving revenue contribute a full month. No annual-prepayment, invoice timing, deferred revenue, sales-tax or receivables timing model. Cash is received/paid at month ends.
Customer churn applies to opening customers and their MRR. Expansion/contraction percentages apply to surviving opening MRR; new-customer MRR is excluded from NRR/GRR. Acquired customers join at the stated new-customer ARPA; no demand or growth is inferred. Fractional forecast customer equivalents are allowed.
COGS is derived once from gross margin. Fixed opex must exclude those COGS, acquisition spending and setup cost to avoid double counting. Acquisition cost equals entered CAC × new customers. Setup is spent at time zero. Starting cash is funding, not project revenue; it is excluded from NPV and only used for runway. No debt financing, terminal valuation or perpetual growth value.
Simple LTV assumes constant ARPA/margin and geometric churn without expansion; zero churn does not imply infinite LTV. Both LTV estimates exclude expansion/contraction and CAC. Bounded LTV discounts at the monthly equivalent of your annual discount rate and truncates at the modeled horizon. It is a modeled gross-profit stream, not guaranteed customer value.
Break-even customer equivalents cover fixed opex only, not acquisition spend. Operating break-even is a month with nonnegative operating net cash; it does not establish cumulative recovery or sustained profitability. Cash-short month is first negative period-end balance, not an intra-month solvency guarantee. Burn multiple uses the entered horizon and annualized MRR change, not an annual benchmark comparison.
All amounts are USD. Results are conditional on your inputs, timing and definitions; no tax rules, incentives, market rates, legal eligibility or lending approval are inferred. Base/downside/upside are entered scenarios, not probabilities or forecasts.
IRR is reported only for a conventional initial outflow followed by nonnegative net inflows, within the stated bracket. Multiple-sign-change flows still have NPV and may have MIRR, but no misleading unique IRR. Payback is the first period-end recovery and may be followed by later deficits.
Review the limits shown with each result. Browser arithmetic has finite precision; small differences may reflect rounding. Print or download important results before closing the tab. This workspace does not store projects online or replace an approved examination calculator, engineering design or professional judgment.
Method and sources
- Stripe: SaaS metrics, acquisition cost and retention
- Oracle: subscription revenue and retention reporting
- CFA Institute: capital investments and allocation
References support the stated mathematical concepts; the interface and implementation are original. Publishers do not endorse this site.